Lets figure out some drop rates!

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Glaxthor.1358

Glaxthor.1358

So as awesome as SAB is, I was wondering about the drop rates. I’ve done some searching but haven’t found anything solid yet.

So if everyone can give your X amount of skins you collected in X amount of runs, we could maybe get a ball park figure of just how rare they are (or rather how random, I guess).

I got a short bow skin on my first run, and have done about 25 runs after that without a drop.

PS this is not a complain thread! Purely academic.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Dingle.2743

Dingle.2743

(6+6+7) * 3 = 57 chests.

No skins.

A guildmember I did most of the runs with has opened 45 chests, and gotten 4 skins.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Vargs.6234

Vargs.6234

24 runs
2 shortbow skins
1 shield skin

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Cid.6301

Cid.6301

35 chests, 1 shield skin

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: ZenonSeth.5739

ZenonSeth.5739

17 runs, ~50 chests (I may have skipped zone 3 at least once)
no skins

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Glaxthor.1358

Glaxthor.1358

A guild mate did 16 runs yesterday, three skins.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Glaxthor.1358

Glaxthor.1358

(6+6+7) * 3 = 57 chests.

No skins.

A guildmember I did most of the runs with has opened 45 chests, and gotten 4 skins.

Some people just have all the luck…

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: FloChan.1956

FloChan.1956

45 chests – no skins

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Mirta.5029

Mirta.5029

5 runs
1 staff skin
Keeping this precious for a few months in my bank to sell it later for more >:D

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Lucas of the Desert.2165

Lucas of the Desert.2165

About 20 chests opened no skin for me, carried a friend through one run, he got stuff skin on 2nd chest^^

Sucks but hey. I suppose that you can’t figure drops out by asking in the forums. A better way would likely be conparing prizes to other things we know the drop chances for :P

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: ZenonSeth.5739

ZenonSeth.5739

Sure you can figure out an approximate drop rate, given that the forum goers here can be considered a more or less random and unbiased sample.

We take the total number of skins obtained by people reported here, and divide it by the total number of chest opens reported here. Assuming that we’re a somewhat random sample, this would give at least a fair approximation to drop rate

Right now approximate numbers are:
462 chests opened, 10 skin drops – that’s about 2% drop rate of skins. That doesn’t point which, if any, skins drop more/less often, since not everyone reports what skin they obtained (or their guildmate obtained)

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Joey.2769

Joey.2769

24 chests 2 skins. First skin shield on first chest of first run. Second skin greatsword chest 23.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Noviere.7309

Noviere.7309

~26 chests opened, 0 skins

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Lucas of the Desert.2165

Lucas of the Desert.2165

Unbiased?? I think not xD. The majority doesn’t even use forums and only those with a good reason even post about it. I posted bevause my friend got one and i didnt. I wouldn’t have posted if i ran 50 chests and got 5 skins. If however i got 3 skins out of 4 boxes i would post it again xD

Biased at its best ^^

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Articluna.4509

Articluna.4509

first skin from 76th chest
edit second skin from 99th chest.
108 total so far

OooOOoohh, box of shinies. So many shinies!
Outsource rng → profit.

(edited by Articluna.4509)

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Glaxthor.1358

Glaxthor.1358

Unbiased?? I think not xD. The majority doesn’t even use forums and only those with a good reason even post about it. I posted bevause my friend got one and i didnt. I wouldn’t have posted if i ran 50 chests and got 5 skins. If however i got 3 skins out of 4 boxes i would post it again xD

Biased at its best ^^

You’re over thinking this just a little… Judging by the various threads relating to SAB, I’d say quite a lot of people are on forums for different reasons. Besides, we’re estimating, not trying to get true figures. Even if we get 100 different scenarios, we’ll be that much closer to understanding the drops.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: bravoart.5308

bravoart.5308

Personally, 72 chests, 0 skins.
Friend has run 72 chests and received 2.
Guildie ran one with us, received 1 so… Add another 1:3 in there.

Its always the same characters/people that have the luck… :/

Finally I recalled the stopgap solution of a great princess who was told that the
peasants had no bread and who responded: “Let them eat brioche.”

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Hardist.3104

Hardist.3104

Got a longbow skin if I remember right on my first chest. All the 9 or 10 chests afterwards didn’t give me anything.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: ZenonSeth.5739

ZenonSeth.5739

[snip]
Its always the same characters/people that have the luck… :/

Maybe ANet uses a personalized random number generator, seeded with a hash (or something similar) of your account user name. Or maybe the seed for the function is what those last 4 numbers are REALLY for =)

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Forsaker.9213

Forsaker.9213

cna i get skin from evry chest or only from boss chest?

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Noviere.7309

Noviere.7309

cna i get skin from evry chest or only from boss chest?

I’ve only heard of people getting them from the boss chests.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: skullmount.1758

skullmount.1758

cna i get skin from evry chest or only from boss chest?

I’ve only heard of people getting them from the boss chests.

Only the very end one (frog one/zone 3) or any of the zone ‘boss’ chest(s)?

I’ve gotten no skins, and I’ve done zone1 at least 10 times (most on the same character), zone 2 maybe 5 times, and haven’t completed zone 3 yet.

Darkhaven server
[DHM] Darkhaven Militia
[Raid] Raiders of the Lost Darkhaven

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: MonteCristo.4167

MonteCristo.4167

45 Chests and 0 Skins.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: ZenonSeth.5739

ZenonSeth.5739

[snip]
Only the very end one (frog one/zone 3) or any of the zone ‘boss’ chest(s)?

I’ve gotten no skins, and I’ve done zone1 at least 10 times (most on the same character), zone 2 maybe 5 times, and haven’t completed zone 3 yet.

I know someone got a drop from Zone 1’s boss chest, so it’s definitely from any of the boss chests. Most of us are just not that lucky.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Forsaker.9213

Forsaker.9213

ok one more question , if i will do daily run for BB in zone 1 and i wont get skin , can i just farm zone 1 boss to try to get the skin?

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: ZenonSeth.5739

ZenonSeth.5739

ok one more question , if i will do daily run for BB in zone 1 and i wont get skin , can i just farm zone 1 boss to try to get the skin?

Not with the same character. The boss chests are limited to once per day per character. You can, however, use other characters to run Zone 1 boss again.
Good luck!

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Puru.4217

Puru.4217

33 chest, no skins

It’s not my fault if S/P is not popular !!!

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Darx.9842

Darx.9842

50 chests, 0 skins.

EDIT:
105 chests, 0 skins.

(edited by Darx.9842)

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Air.6452

Air.6452

~32 Chests, 1 skin

Chody – Leader of We Came To Dance GW2
Crystal Desert
We Came To Dance [WCTD]

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Angelic.1365

Angelic.1365

114 chests, 0 skins

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: ZenonSeth.5739

ZenonSeth.5739

If anyone is interested, the totals so far:
948 chests reported open
17 skins reported found
~= 1.79% drop rate estimate

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Aristio.2784

Aristio.2784

40 Chest opened. 1 Skin.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: pencapchew.5432

pencapchew.5432

Got a skin from the first cage boss at the end of the first zone. So that leads me to believe that you can get them from any glorious chest not just the Frog boss.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Highvoltage.7946

Highvoltage.7946

most of you that have received a skin from chests, have you been in a group or solo? just curious, 5 runs per day since it started solo and nada.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: ScrakeMode.2348

ScrakeMode.2348

18 runs one scepter skin only running solo

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: pencapchew.5432

pencapchew.5432

most of you that have received a skin from chests, have you been in a group or solo? just curious, 5 runs per day since it started solo and nada.

I got mine solo.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: ZenonSeth.5739

ZenonSeth.5739

Another evening of running, another evening without any skins. I know this isn’t a complaint thread, it’s just getting on my nerves how others can get upwards of 4 skins seemingly so easily. :/

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Chrisplosion.3756

Chrisplosion.3756

60 chests, 0 skins

Been soloing for the most part.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Josh Foreman

Josh Foreman

Environment Design Specialist

It’s 1 in 50.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Reize.2176

Reize.2176

I have gone thru 84 chests, zero skins

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Chrisplosion.3756

Chrisplosion.3756

I have gone thru 84 chests, zero skins

Sometimes the odds aren’t in our favor lol

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Reize.2176

Reize.2176

I have gone thru 84 chests, zero skins

Sometimes the odds aren’t in our favor lol

We’re all gambling addicts anyway when we bought the game, its part and parcel.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

It’s 1 in 50.

O.o

Are- aren’t you breaking some deeply held taboo among ANet staff by coming right out and telling us the odds, Josh?

As for me, I was extremely lucky:

3 runs
8 chests
1 Shield skin

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: ZenonSeth.5739

ZenonSeth.5739

It’s 1 in 50.

This is cool, because we actually got pretty close to estimating a 2% drop rate earlier.
This is also sad, because it means I’ve been horribly unlucky.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Chrisplosion.3756

Chrisplosion.3756

63 chests, 0 skins

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Avengersoul.8256

Avengersoul.8256

Roughly 29 runs so far of World 1 only, 4 skins

Yak’s Bend

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Reize.2176

Reize.2176

96 chests, 0 skins.

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Chrisplosion.3756

Chrisplosion.3756

96 chests, 0 skins.

Your bad luck really puts mine in perspective…

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Toddzilla.6438

Toddzilla.6438

96 chests, 0 skins.

I’m in the same boat. 96 chests, 0 skins :/

Edit: I got my first skin last night, so now I’m at 1/120.

(edited by Toddzilla.6438)

Lets figure out some drop rates!

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Posted by: Lucas of the Desert.2165

Lucas of the Desert.2165

It’s 1 in 50.

Wow O.o thanks man!

I’m actually buffled a little after getting such an awesome response thanks!